Daily Macro & Market Wrap – April 8, 2025

📅 Daily Macro & Market Wrap – April 8, 2025

Markets started the week on a cautious note ahead of key U.S. inflation data (CPI due Wednesday). The S&P 500 pulled back slightly from record highs as investors booked profits and yields edged higher. In Europe, German industrial production rebounded stronger than expected, while in Asia, mixed signals from China’s credit markets and Japan’s FX interventions were in focus. Oil prices remained firm near recent highs amid geopolitical tensions and tight supply expectations.

United States

Market Performance:

• S&P 500: -0.04%
• Nasdaq: -0.27%
• Dow Jones: +0.13%
• 10Y Yield: ↑ to 4.43% (+4bps)
• USD Index (DXY): ↑ to 104.30

Key Developments:

• Market focus remains on Wednesday’s March CPI. A hotter-than-expected print could derail rate cut expectations.
• Fed’s Williams (neutral) repeated it’s too soon to cut rates but expects inflation to fall further this year.
• Fed futures now price less than 2 rate cuts for 2025; September remains the first likely cut window.

Euro Area

Market Performance:

• EuroStoxx 50: +0.23%
• DAX: +0.79%
• CAC 40: +0.27%
• 10Y Bund Yield: ↑ to 2.38% (+5bps)
• EUR/USD: ↓ to 1.0830

Key Developments:

• Germany’s industrial production for February came in at +2.1% MoM (vs. +0.5% expected), suggesting early signs of stabilization in the manufacturing sector.
• ECB’s Villeroy reaffirmed that a June rate cut is very likely barring a shock.
• Inflation expectations remain anchored, with market pricing nearly 75bps of cuts in 2025.

United Kingdom

Market Performance:

• FTSE 100: +0.05%
• 10Y Gilt Yield: ↑ to 4.10%
• GBP/USD: ↓ to 1.2615

Key Developments:

• No major UK data released.
• Focus remains on next week’s UK GDP print and BoE’s Bailey speech (Thursday) for more clarity on summer rate cut probability.

China

Market Performance:

• Shanghai Composite: -0.72%
• Hang Seng: -0.65%
• USD/CNH: ↑ to 7.2650

Key Developments:

• Continued signs of credit stress as March total social financing growth is expected to slow.
• Chinese regulators considering more support for developers after Country Garden’s liquidation fears resurfaced.
• Foreign investors remain cautious despite recent modest inflows into tech.

Japan

Market Performance:

• Nikkei 225: -0.03%
• 10Y JGB Yield: ↑ to 0.77%
• USD/JPY: ↓ to 151.80

Key Developments:

• BoJ likely conducted a stealth FX intervention as yen saw sharp spike from intraday lows near 152.5.
• BoJ Governor Ueda offered no clear signal on rate hikes, but markets continue to watch USDJPY closely.
• Wage growth data expected later this week will be key for policy trajectory.

🌍 EMEA (Emerging Markets)

Market Performance & News:

• South Africa’s rand firmed slightly ahead of local CPI data later this week.
• Turkish lira (USD/TRY): traded steady around 32.00; eyes remain on post-election economic restructuring steps.
• Poland’s WIG20: gained +0.9% as local inflation continues to trend downward.

🛢️🪙 Commodities & Crypto

🛢️ Commodities:

• WTI Crude: $86.55 (+0.45%)
• Brent: $90.20 (+0.52%)
• Gold: $2,331 (-0.3%)
• Copper: $4.15/lb (+0.4%)

Key Highlights:

• Oil remains strong amid tensions in Middle East and Russia-Ukraine border strikes.
• Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 Brent forecast to $92.
• Gold sees profit-taking ahead of CPI after recent all-time highs.

🪙 Crypto:

• BTC: $69,200 (+1.4%)
• ETH: $3,450 (+1.9%)
• SOL: $184 (+2.2%)

Top News:

• BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF saw another $150M in inflows, pushing total AUM past $15B.
• Ethereum Dencun upgrade stabilizing gas fees on L2s – positive sentiment for scalability narrative.
• Crypto sentiment remains bullish heading into Bitcoin halving (~10 days away).