Weekly Global Macro Recap & Outlook (May 13–17 Recap | May 20–24 Preview)

🔹 Summary

Weekly global market summary reflects a cautious optimism as investors processed weaker U.S. inflation data and shifted rate cut expectations. While the S&P 500 climbed to record highs on lower yields and tech strength, global growth signals remained mixed. The UK and Germany showed weak GDP prints, China offered conflicting data, and Japan’s economy shrank more than forecast. In the week ahead, PMI data and inflation releases from the UK and Eurozone could reshape monetary policy expectations worldwide.

🌎 United States

Previous Week (May 13–17):

• Inflation came in below expectations:
  • CPI YoY: 3.4% (vs. 3.4% exp, 3.5% prev)
  • Core CPI YoY: 3.6% (vs. 3.6% exp, 3.8% prev)
• PPI softened, with core PPI flat MoM.
• Retail Sales growth disappointed at 0.0% (vs. 0.4% exp), suggesting weak consumer momentum.
• Yields dropped, with the 10-year falling ~9bps to 4.41%.
• S&P 500 +1.5%, Nasdaq +2.1%, led by tech and semiconductors.
• DXY fell to ~104.4, reflecting reduced rate hike bets.

This Week (May 20–24):

• FOMC Minutes (Wed): Key to understanding how dovish Fed members really are.
• S&P Global PMI (Thu): Flash manufacturing and services prints will hint at Q2 momentum.
• Market is now pricing in two rate cuts in 2024, with first seen in September.

🇪🇺 Euro Area

Previous Week:

• No major data from the Eurozone last week; focus remained on Bundesbank and ECB speakers, who maintained a dovish tone.
• Peripheral bond spreads narrowed slightly.
• Euro gained ground post-US CPI, EUR/USD up to 1.0870.

This Week:

• German GDP (Fri): Expected at +0.2% QoQ, rebounding from prior -0.2%.
• Eurozone CPI Final (Mon): April inflation expected to remain at 2.4% YoY.
• ECB officials likely to reinforce June rate cut narrative, especially if inflation cools further.

🇬🇧 United Kingdom

Previous Week:

• GDP MoM grew 0.4%, beating expectations and easing recession concerns.
• BoE speakers remained cautious, but market still sees August as likely cut window.
• FTSE 100 touched new all-time highs on soft CPI optimism and strong mining sector.

This Week:

• CPI YoY (Wed): Forecast at 2.6% (down from 3.2%).
• A significantly lower inflation read could cement a summer rate cut.
• Services and Composite PMIs (Thu) will provide growth sentiment cues.

🇨🇳 China

Previous Week:

• Industrial Production beat at 6.7% YoY (vs. 5.5% exp).
• Retail Sales disappointed at 2.3% YoY (vs. 3.8%).
• Fixed Asset Investment was weak, reinforcing concerns over private sector capex.
• Yuan was supported by a stronger midpoint fix by the PBoC.

This Week:

• No major Tier-1 data.
• Focus will remain on:
  • State Council stimulus hints
  • Property market policies
  • RMB stability vs USD, now hovering ~7.23

🇯🇵 Japan

Previous Week:

• Q1 GDP contracted by -2.0% QoQ annualized, worse than expected.
• Weak consumption and exports dragged growth.
• BoJ intervention concerns rose again as USD/JPY broke above 155.50 before stabilizing.

This Week:

• CPI (Fri): Key inflation print; Tokyo CPI recently cooled, headline CPI expected to slow toward 2.0%.
• Market expects no BoJ hike until at least July, but weak JPY remains a risk trigger.

🌍 EMEA & Other Emerging Markets

Turkey:

• CBRT minutes (Thu) will be watched after inflation expectations worsened.
• USD/TRY stayed flat near 32.20 amid tight monetary stance.
• BIST 100 fell ~2% last week, led by banking and industrials.

South Africa:

• Elections next week keep risk premium high.
• ZAR was volatile, briefly touching 18.40/USD before strengthening.

Brazil & LatAm:

• BRL strengthened after central bank signaled pause in rate cuts.
• Bovespa +1.3%, led by energy and consumer sectors.

🛢️ Commodities

• Gold: +2.3% to close near $2,415/oz — driven by lower yields and soft USD.
• Silver: Surged 10.5% — best performer among metals.
• Oil (Brent): Flat at ~$83.80 despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

₿ Crypto Assets

Highlights:

• BTC +11% on the week, closing above $66,000.
• ETH +7.8%, SOL +9%, TON +16%, DOGE +8%.
• Spot ETF flows turned net positive again.
• Hong Kong ETFs continued modest inflows.

Notable News:

• BlackRock added to BTC ETF holdings.
• Fidelity increased ETF inflows after price breakout.
• TON flipped ADA in market cap.