Ceasefire Lifts Global Markets; Fed Dovish, PMIs Mixed, China Exports Slump, Oil and Gold Drop

This global market summary outlines the key developments shaping today’s financial landscape. A ceasefire between Iran and Israel triggered a global risk-on reaction—equities surged, oil prices dropped sharply, and bond yields fell. Dovish remarks from Fed’s Bowman further boosted rate-cut expectations, though soft U.S. PMI data raised concerns about persistent inflation and slowing growth.

Global Market Summary: United States Outlook

Markets rallied across the U.S. as geopolitical risks eased and dovish Fed rhetoric fueled rate-cut expectations. All major indices closed higher. Treasury yields declined in response to increased confidence in near-term easing.

• June PMIs: Manufacturing slowed to 52.8, services to 53.1—both still expansionary but softer than prior readings.

• Inflation Risk: Input costs rose again, suggesting persistent inflation pressure.

• Housing Market: Existing home sales in May remained flat, stuck near 2009 lows due to high mortgage rates.

Eurozone & UK Developments

The Eurozone saw fragile growth, with the composite PMI holding at 50.2. Manufacturing stagnated, while the services sector showed slight resilience. Inflation dropped below the ECB’s 2% target, reinforcing the case for policy easing.

In the UK, business activity showed signs of recovery, but inflation concerns linger:

• Grocery prices rose 4.7% YoY.

• Bank of England warned that inflation may plateau around 3.5%.

• Factory orders remained weak, capping industrial momentum.

China & Asia Market Rebound

Asian equities rebounded sharply as geopolitical tensions eased:

• Nikkei: +1.1%

• Hang Seng: +2.1%

• Shanghai Composite: +1.2%

• KOSPI: +2.8%

• Jakarta Index: also in the green

Markets welcomed the tentative truce between Israel and Iran, helping risk sentiment across the region.

Global Market Summary: Commodities & Currencies

• Oil: Brent and WTI both dropped nearly 3%, retreating to the $66–69 range as ceasefire news cooled supply fears.

• Gold: Fell ~1.8% as safe-haven demand declined.

• CRB Index: Down ~0.6%, last seen near 383.5.

• Currencies:

  • USD weakened against EUR and JPY

  • GBP declined slightly amid renewed inflation concerns

EMEA Sentiment and Trends

EMEA markets improved with oil prices easing and geopolitical calm returning. While no major macro data were released, central banks in the region remained cautious, focusing on persistent inflation dynamics and rate outlooks.

Key Headlines and What’s Next

Key Drivers:

• Ceasefire between Iran and Israel improved global sentiment

• Fed’s Bowman hinted at possible July rate cuts

• U.S. business activity softened but remains expansionary

• Chinese manufacturing contracted; services stayed above 50

Coming Up:

• Fed Chair Powell’s testimony on June 24–25

• U.S. Q1 GDP revision and Core PCE inflation data

• ECB and BoE commentary on inflation trajectory