Markets Soar as Iran-Israel Ceasefire Cuts Oil; Powell’s Speech,Weak Confidence in U.S.

This global market summary explores how geopolitical developments, particularly the Iran-Israel ceasefire, created broad ripple effects across financial markets. The combination of a sudden oil price crash, deteriorating U.S. data, and diverging central bank messages fueled volatility and speculation about near-term monetary policy changes. Traders are now watching upcoming inflation and GDP data for further clues.

Global Market Summary: Ceasefire Lifts Stocks, Sinks Oil

Global equity markets rallied to record highs as a fragile ceasefire announcement between Iran and Israel eased geopolitical anxieties and triggered an oil price slump—Brent crude dropped ~18%, now ~20% below its year‑ago level. This, combined with weakening U.S. consumer confidence and a widening current account deficit, bolstered hopes that the Fed may begin cutting rates as early as July.
Markets also showed strong inflows into risk assets, reflecting renewed appetite for equities over safe havens.

United States: Confidence Falls, Fed Signals Caution

Equities & Bonds: S&P 500 surged ~1%, nearing record highs. U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields dropped to ~4.30%.
Currency: USD weakened further toward four‑year lows against the euro and yen.
Economic Data: Consumer confidence unexpectedly fell by 5.4 pts to 93 in June. Meanwhile, the current account deficit soared to $450 billion (≈6% of GDP)—a two‑decade high.
Fed Commentary: Powell reiterated a measured approach—“many paths” remain possible—emphasizing tariff‑inflation lag and awaiting more data before cutting rates.
These signals reinforce the Fed’s wait-and-see mode, but markets are already betting on easing by July.

Europe & Asia: Regional Gains, Trade and Policy Moves

European equities: Euro STOXX 50, FTSE, and DAX saw gains as markets cheered the truce; FTSE edged mildly higher.
Gilt yields: UK 10‑year yields hovered ~4.475%, barely changed.
BoE warnings: Governor Bailey flagged rising unpredictability due to Trump-era trade wars. The UK responded to U.S. steel tariffs with import restrictions and announced a £2.5 bn auto sector support package.
In China, blue‑chips rose ~0.5%, bolstered by ceasefire-related optimism and central bank guidance to stimulate domestic consumption. Japan’s Nikkei climbed ~0.3%, with a stronger yen pressuring exporters but reflecting global USD softness.

Global Market Summary: Oil Collapse & Crypto Calm

Oil: Brent tumbled ~18% on the ceasefire news and later rebounded modestly, settling near $68/bbl for Brent and $65+ for WTI.
Other Commodities: CRB index fell ~2.6% to 364.6, pressured by lower oil.
Gold & Metals: Gold edged up ~0.13%, copper up ~0.29%.
Crypto: No major crypto news yet—trends seem subdued in line with global risk sentiment.
This global market summary reflects not just volatility in commodities, but also how investor positioning has rotated toward equities while digital assets remain cautious.