This global market recap and tariff outlook highlights Nvidia’s $4 trillion valuation, cautious Fed minutes, expanding U.S. tariffs, and deflation concerns in China, as investors brace for earnings season and potential retaliatory measures.
Global Market Recap and Tariff Outlook: United States
Previous Day (July 9, 2025):
- US equity markets closed higher: S&P 500 +0.6%, Dow +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.9%, Russell 2000 +1.1%.
- Nvidia became the world’s first $4 trillion company, boosting overall tech sentiment.
- Fed’s June meeting minutes showed limited support for a July rate cut, reflecting cautious stance on inflation despite growth moderation.
- A successful $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction helped stabilize yields.
- President Trump announced new tariffs: 50% on copper starting August 1, with additional levies on select IT, pharmaceutical goods, and a 10% flat tariff on BRICS countries.
Market Snapshot:
- Equities: Tech and small caps led the rally.
- Bonds: Yields slightly higher; rate cut expectations for July muted.
Looking Ahead:
- Big bank earnings (e.g. JPMorgan) begin next week.
- Weekly jobless claims and further Fed communication will shape near-term rate expectations.
- Market watching possible retaliatory steps from BRICS and clarity on US–EU trade truce.
Global Market Recap and Tariff Outlook: Euro Area
Previous Day:
- European equities were steady; YTD gains of STOXX 600 now match the S&P 500 (~6.6%).
- Euro weakened as the dollar gained following global trade tensions.
Looking Ahead:
- Eyes on Germany’s industrial output.
- France’s ongoing budget approval process could inject regional uncertainty.
- EU–US tariff talks ongoing; EU might avoid full exposure to new trade measures.
Global Market Recap and Tariff Outlook: United Kingdom
Previous Day:
- FTSE 100 traded flat.
- Bank of England highlighted financial stability risks tied to global uncertainty.
- GBP slightly stronger against USD.
Looking Ahead:
- Key debt auctions and political developments in France may influence gilt yields.
China and Japan Trade Developments
China:
Chinese equities modestly higher.
June PPI fell 3.6% YoY – deepest drop in two years, while CPI rose slightly, signaling continued deflation concerns.
State planner projected 2025 GDP to exceed ¥140 trillion (~$19.5 trillion).
Looking Ahead:
Market watching for further stimulus hints or PBOC action in response to deflation.
Beijing expects EU to soften tone on market access criticisms.
Japan:
Nikkei fell 0.6% as yen strength and trade tensions weighed on sentiment.
JPY appreciated amid global risk-off sentiment and safe haven flows.
Looking Ahead:
Upcoming CPI data and government talks with US officials remain in focus.
Emerging Market Volatility Snapshot
- Asia ex‑Japan: MSCI Asia-Pacific (ex-Japan) +0.4%, with mixed results across Hong Kong and South Korea.
- Brazil: BRL weakened after it was directly targeted in Trump’s copper tariff expansion.
- Turkey: Facing long-term shifts in energy strategy as gas demand falters amid clean-energy transition.
Commodities and Tariff Impact Overview
- Gold: Fell 0.2% to around $3,295/oz due to stronger dollar and higher yields.
- Oil: Marginal decline; investors cautious ahead of macro data.
- Copper: Price slipped after initial spike on new tariff news.
- Crypto: Bitcoin near record levels; Ethereum rose ~1.3%.
Highlights:
- Nvidia crosses $4 trillion market cap.
- Fed minutes show hesitation on imminent rate cuts.
- Trump enacts aggressive tariffs; market reaction calm but uncertain.
- Chinese PPI deflation continues.
- Q2 earnings season begins next week with US banks in focus.
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