Markets on Hold Before Powell: Fed, Trade Deals, and Tech Earnings Create High-Stakes Calm- 30.07.2025

This global market analysis shows how tariff deals, IMF growth upgrades, and upcoming Fed decisions are shaping investor sentiment. U.S. equities eased after record highs, Europe gained on trade optimism, and crypto markets stayed resilient amid regulatory progress.

Global Summary (July 29–30, 2025)

• Global equity markets showed mixed performance: U.S. indices slipped after reaching record highs, while European shares edged higher on optimism over trade deals.
• The IMF upgraded its 2025 global growth forecast to around 3.0%, signaling improved trade momentum but flagged risks—from tariffs to political pressure on central banks. Emerging markets’ GDP is now projected at 4.1% for 2025 (China forecast: 4.8%; India: 6.4%).
• The U.S. dollar strengthened broadly as trade tensions receded, particularly after new agreements with EU and Japan. Analysts suggest that the dollar rally reflects waning tariff risk premiums rather than outright regional strength.

Global Market Analysis: U.S. Stocks Ease Ahead of Fed Decision

Equities & Earnings:

• U.S. major benchmarks ended lower: Dow –0.46%, S&P –0.30%, Nasdaq –0.38%, snapping record-setting winning streaks.
• Investors await earnings from tech powerhouses: Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon this week.

Macro Reality:

• June goods trade deficit dropped ~10.8% to ~$86 billion, supporting a forecast bump in Q2 GDP to ~3.1%.
• Job openings declined to ~7.44 million, and consumer confidence only marginally improved, pointing toward labor market cooling.

Federal Reserve Outlook:

• The Fed is widely expected to hold the policy rate at 4.25%–4.50%. Powell is likely to underscore a data-dependent framework and stress institutional independence amid political criticism.
• Markets are pricing in two rate cuts in late 2025 (starting around September or October). Internal dissent may emerge from at least two FOMC members advocating a 25 bps cut.

Global Market Analysis: Eurozone Outlook and Tariff Effects

Markets & FX:

• European equities were mixed; autos and industrial stocks lagged. The euro fell over 1% post-rumors of substantial trade tariffs—imposed at ~15%, down from earlier proposed levels but above ECB projections of 10% tariff baseline.

Macro Signals:

• ECB’s growth outlook may weaken due to tariff-related headwinds in trade-sensitive sectors.
• Peripheral yields declined as global risk sentiment remained cautious.

Global Market Analysis: UK Markets Cautious Amid Policy Uncertainty

Equities & Finance:

• UK markets remained cautious amid tariff fallout and regulatory scrutiny over fintech. HSBC and UBS delivered contrasting results. Barclays announced a strong share buyback and profits jump, though broader confidence is tempered by Brexit-related trade policy ambiguity.

Economic Outlook:

• Analysts expect the Bank of England to await incoming inflation and employment data before adjusting interest rates; the UK’s 2025 GDP growth forecast sits around ~1.2%.

China Outlook and Tariff Negotiations

China:

• The IMF raised China’s 2025 GDP forecast to ~4.8%, citing reduced tariff burdens and improved domestic momentum.

Asia region:

• Asian equities fell—MSCI Asia down 0.7%, Japan’s Nikkei –0.8%, Chinese benchmarks slightly lower—as lingering tariff uncertainty weighed on sentiment.
• U.S.–China trade talks resumed in Stockholm, with tariff truce extended into early August. Markets await clarity before early tariff deadlines in August 2025.

Emerging Markets & EMEA

• Emerging markets rallied earlier this year but face renewed pressure due to rising dollar and looming U.S. tariff deadlines. Capital flows may slow, especially into India and Latin America, amid mounting uncertainty.
• The IMF revised emerging market growth to 4.1% in 2025, led by gains for China and India.
• Rising talk of de‑dollarization amid U.S. debt concerns could support diversified investment strategies and softer dollar linkage in EM economies.

Global Market Analysis: Commodities and Crypto Performance Highlights

Commodities:

• Gold (+0.4%) remains buoyed by safe-haven demand ahead of the Fed meeting.
• Brent crude edged down (~–0.6%) amid concerns over global demand; copper rose modestly (+0.1%) on hopes for Chinese infrastructure stimulus.

Crypto Assets (48h Highlights):

1. SEC approved in‑kind redemption mechanism for spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
2. Marathon Digital Q2 revenues surged 64%, fueled by BTC price gains.
3. Altcoins such as DOGE, SOL, XRP lagged; BTC (+2.3%) and ETH (+1.8%) proved resilient.
4. Coinbase plans diversification beyond USDC stablecoin.
5. BlackRock added staking to its Ethereum ETF proposal.
6. MicroStrategy announced an additional $1.2 billion BTC purchase.
7. Binance targets EU expansion via new licenses.
8. U.S. Senate advances bipartisan crypto tax legislation.

Performance metrics:

• Bitcoin (BTC): +2.3%
• Ethereum (ETH): +1.8%
• Altcoin index: down ~1.1% due to bearish meme-coin pressure.

Key Insights & What’s Coming

• Powell’s 2:00 PM ET decision and press conference (2:30 PM ET) are market focal points.
• Q2 GDP advance estimate (~3.1%), personal spending, Core PCE, and July employment data due later this week.
• Tech earnings from Meta and Microsoft (today), Apple and Amazon (tomorrow) could shape sentiment.
• ECB (likely rate-hold), BoC and BoJ decisions due mid‑week.
• U.S.–China and U.S.–EU tariff deadlines approaching August 1 and August 12; negotiated extensions may reduce volatility.
• Watch central bank independence discourse globally—especially if governments pressure for easier monetary policy amid political turbulence.