This global market recap and tariff outlook highlights Nvidia’s $4 trillion valuation, cautious Fed minutes, expanding U.S. tariffs, and deflation concerns in China, as investors brace for earnings season and potential retaliatory measures.

Global Market Recap and Tariff Outlook: United States

Previous Day (July 9, 2025):

• US equity markets closed higher: S&P 500 +0.6%, Dow +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.9%, Russell 2000 +1.1%.
• Nvidia became the world’s first $4 trillion company, boosting overall tech sentiment.
• Fed’s June meeting minutes showed limited support for a July rate cut, reflecting cautious stance on inflation despite growth moderation.
• A successful $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction helped stabilize yields.
• President Trump announced new tariffs: 50% on copper starting August 1, with additional levies on select IT, pharmaceutical goods, and a 10% flat tariff on BRICS countries.

Market Snapshot:

• Equities: Tech and small caps led the rally.
• Bonds: Yields slightly higher; rate cut expectations for July muted.

Looking Ahead:

• Big bank earnings (e.g. JPMorgan) begin next week.
• Weekly jobless claims and further Fed communication will shape near-term rate expectations.
• Market watching possible retaliatory steps from BRICS and clarity on US–EU trade truce.

Global Market Recap and Tariff Outlook: Euro Area

Previous Day:

• European equities were steady; YTD gains of STOXX 600 now match the S&P 500 (~6.6%).
• Euro weakened as the dollar gained following global trade tensions.

Looking Ahead:

• Eyes on Germany’s industrial output.
• France’s ongoing budget approval process could inject regional uncertainty.
• EU–US tariff talks ongoing; EU might avoid full exposure to new trade measures.

Global Market Recap and Tariff Outlook: United Kingdom

Previous Day:

• FTSE 100 traded flat.
• Bank of England highlighted financial stability risks tied to global uncertainty.
• GBP slightly stronger against USD.

Looking Ahead:

• Key debt auctions and political developments in France may influence gilt yields.

China and Japan Trade Developments

China:

Chinese equities modestly higher.
June PPI fell 3.6% YoY – deepest drop in two years, while CPI rose slightly, signaling continued deflation concerns.
State planner projected 2025 GDP to exceed ¥140 trillion (~$19.5 trillion).

Looking Ahead:

Market watching for further stimulus hints or PBOC action in response to deflation.
Beijing expects EU to soften tone on market access criticisms.

Japan:

Nikkei fell 0.6% as yen strength and trade tensions weighed on sentiment.
JPY appreciated amid global risk-off sentiment and safe haven flows.

Looking Ahead:

Upcoming CPI data and government talks with US officials remain in focus.

Emerging Market Volatility Snapshot

• Asia ex‑Japan: MSCI Asia-Pacific (ex-Japan) +0.4%, with mixed results across Hong Kong and South Korea.
• Brazil: BRL weakened after it was directly targeted in Trump’s copper tariff expansion.
• Turkey: Facing long-term shifts in energy strategy as gas demand falters amid clean-energy transition.

Commodities and Tariff Impact Overview

• Gold: Fell 0.2% to around $3,295/oz due to stronger dollar and higher yields.
• Oil: Marginal decline; investors cautious ahead of macro data.
• Copper: Price slipped after initial spike on new tariff news.
• Crypto: Bitcoin near record levels; Ethereum rose ~1.3%.

Highlights:

• Nvidia crosses $4 trillion market cap.
• Fed minutes show hesitation on imminent rate cuts.
• Trump enacts aggressive tariffs; market reaction calm but uncertain.
• Chinese PPI deflation continues.
• Q2 earnings season begins next week with US banks in focus.