Markets kicked off the week with cautious optimism, as this daily market recap highlights a heavy macro calendar including JOLTS, ISM Services, the ECB decision, and U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls. U.S. data showed continued manufacturing sector resilience. Eurozone inflation supported rate-cut bets, while oil prices rebounded on speculation around future OPEC+ actions. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions (Red Sea, Taiwan) remain in the backdrop.

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🇺🇸 United States

Previous Day Highlights:

• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May): Rose to 52.3, beating forecasts (50.2), indicating ongoing manufacturing expansion.
• Markets:
  • S&P 500: +0.27%
  • Nasdaq 100: +0.48%
  • 10Y Yield: ↑ to 4.51% (+5bps)
  • Dollar Index (DXY): Flat at 104.6

News:

• Fed officials entered a quiet period before the June FOMC, but Fed funds futures are pricing in no rate cuts until November.
• AI stocks extended gains, led by Nvidia and Broadcom.
• WSJ reported ongoing concerns within the Fed over “uncomfortably sticky” services inflation.

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🇪🇺 Euro Area

Previous Day Highlights:

• CPI Flash Estimate (YoY, May): 2.6% (vs 2.5% expected)
• Core CPI (YoY, May): 2.9% (inline)
• Germany 10Y Bund yield: +6bps to 2.72%

Markets:

• Euro Stoxx 50: +0.55%
• EUR/USD: Slightly up at 1.0865

News:

• Inflation prints didn’t derail rate cut expectations. ECB is still widely expected to cut rates on Thursday.
• Germany’s coalition faced electoral setbacks in EU pre-voting polls, adding political pressure to fiscal discussions.

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🇬🇧 United Kingdom

Previous Day Highlights:

• No major macro data.

Markets:

• FTSE 100: -0.25%
• GBP/USD: Unchanged near 1.2740
• 10Y Gilt: Yield ↑ to 4.32%

News:

• Bank of England’s Pill reiterated caution on premature rate cuts, despite softening services inflation.

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🇨🇳 China

Previous Day Highlights:

• Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May): 51.7 (vs 51.5 expected), showing continued improvement.

Markets:

• Hang Seng: +1.8%
• CSI 300: +0.6%
• CNY: Slightly weaker at 7.25/USD

News:

• PBoC signaled more targeted stimulus for property sector.
• EV sector led the equity gains after NIO and Li Auto posted strong delivery figures.

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🇯🇵 Japan

Previous Day Highlights:

• No major macroeconomic releases.

Markets:

• Nikkei 225: +0.9%
• 10Y JGB: Yield ↑ to 1.04%
• USD/JPY: At 157.30, yen continues to weaken.

News:

• BoJ officials reiterated concerns about premature policy tightening, keeping bets alive for a very gradual normalization.

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🌍 EMEA & Others

🇹🇷 Turkey:

• USD/TRY: Slightly up at 32.27
• CBRT FX reserve buildup continues; CDS spreads mildly narrowed as inflows sustain.

🇿🇦 South Africa:

• ANC lost majority in final election results (40.2%), leading to coalition talks.
• ZAR: Volatile, traded at 18.60/USD

🇧🇷 Brazil:

• IBOV: +0.8%
• Lula’s remarks on cutting rates drew criticism from BCB, increasing friction between monetary and fiscal arms.

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🛢️ Commodities & 🔐 Crypto

Commodities

• Brent: +1.4% to $82.10
• WTI: +1.3% to $77.95
• Gold: +0.2% to $2,344/oz

News:

• OPEC+ extended current production cuts into Q3 but introduced the possibility of gradual phase-outs starting October.