Mega Week Ahead: Fed, BoJ, Eurozone CPI, Big Tech Earnings, Global Growth at Inflection Point- 28.07.2025

This weekly market outlook focuses on a critical week for global markets, with central bank decisions, key economic data, and major corporate earnings driving sentiment. Investors are watching the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan policy meetings, Eurozone CPI and GDP releases, and high-profile earnings from Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Tesla. Crypto markets are also in the spotlight as Ethereum and Bitcoin hover near major resistance levels, adding volatility to the overall market landscape.

Weekly Market Outlook: U.S. Tariff Deals and Fed Decision

U.S.–EU Tariff Deal

The U.S. and European Union finalized a comprehensive tariff agreement, imposing a 15% standard tariff on most EU exports to the U.S. This replaces the previously threatened 30–50% rates, thus averting a deeper trade war. Crucially:

• Steel and aluminum remain under 50% tariff.
• Pharmaceuticals, defense, chips, and nuclear technologies are exempted under “strategic carve-outs.”
• The EU agreed to $750 billion in U.S. energy purchases and $600 billion in investment inflows into U.S. infrastructure and clean tech.

U.S.–China Trade Truce

Simultaneously, the U.S. and China began new negotiations in Stockholm aimed at extending their 90-day tariff ceasefire. The truce had paused punitive measures on semiconductors, AI equipment, and EV supply chains. While no formal agreement has yet emerged, both sides have committed to maintaining the suspension while talks continue.

Implications:

• Reduces downside risks to global supply chains.
• Opens the door for a potential Trump–Xi bilateral meeting before the U.S. elections.
• Keeps pressure off tech and consumer goods imports during the holiday production cycle.

Meme Stocks & Index ATHs

Retail investors are back in full force. Stocks like Kohl’s, Opendoor, GoPro, and Krispy Kreme experienced explosive gains in July—some rising over 300% within days—driven by short squeezes and TikTok/Reddit hype.

At the same time:

• S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all closed last week at all-time highs.
• Rally is powered by expectations of Fed rate cuts, strong Big Tech earnings, and easing global trade risks.
• Options market shows increased call buying on mid-cap tech and consumer names.

This Week (July 29–August 2)

• Federal Reserve Decision (Wednesday, July 31)
  No rate change is expected, but all focus is on forward guidance. Markets are pricing in a ~60% chance of a rate cut in September, so Chair Powell’s tone will be pivotal. If he signals concern about weak business investment or global risks (like the EU trade imbalance or soft China data), that could cement cut expectations. Key questions include:
  • Will the Fed acknowledge the moderation in inflation (core PCE has eased to ~2.4%)?
  • Will Powell hint at financial conditions being “too tight” despite strong equities?
• July Non-Farm Payrolls (Friday, August 2)
  Consensus: +190k jobs, unemployment steady at 4.0%, average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m.
  A weak report could accelerate rate cut bets; a strong report may delay the September move.
• Other Key Data:
  • JOLTS (Tuesday) – labor market tightness in focus
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI (Thursday) – expected around 49.5, still contractionary
  • ADP Private Jobs (Wednesday) – often a noisy NFP preview
  • Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) – sentiment has slipped in recent months despite strong equity gains
• Earnings:
  This is the most critical earnings week for U.S. equities. Scheduled Q2 earnings:
  • Apple (Thursday) – iPhone sales in China and services margins under scrutiny.
  • Amazon (Thursday) – AWS growth and advertising revenue key metrics.
  • Meta (Wednesday) – ad spend trends and Reels monetization updates.
  • Microsoft (Tuesday) – Azure cloud growth vs. capex.
  • Tesla (Monday, post-market) – margin pressure, Cybertruck production updates.
  • McDonald’s, Pfizer, Boeing, Visa also reporting.
    These earnings will dominate short-term S&P 500 direction, particularly if forward guidance weakens.

Weekly Market Outlook: Eurozone CPI and GDP Data in Focus

This Week (July 29–August 2)

• July Flash Inflation (Wednesday, July 31)
  Expected:
  • Headline CPI: +2.4% y/y (vs 2.5% prior)
  • Core CPI: +2.5% y/y (vs 2.6%)
    Markets want confirmation that disinflation remains on track.
    A soft print would support ECB rate cut pricing for September or October.
• Q2 GDP (Wednesday, July 31)
  Forecast: +0.1% q/q
  Weak growth is expected in Germany and Italy, slight rebound in Spain and France. If growth contracts again, it raises recession flags—adding pressure on the ECB.
• Other Events:
  • ECB Speakers (Lagarde, Schnabel) throughout the week
  • Ongoing market concern around the U.S.–EU trade deal fallout and its impact on industrial policy, especially for pharma and autos
• Bond Markets:
  Bund yields have fallen ~12bps over the past week in anticipation of soft inflation. A dovish print could see 10-year Bunds fall below 2.3%.

United Kingdom

This Week

• Nationwide House Price Index (Wednesday) – home prices are showing modest recovery
• BoE Inflation Expectations Survey (Friday) – ahead of the August 8 BoE decision, this could shape market views
• Gilts and Sterling will react to any signs of stronger inflation or wage pressures, particularly as real wages are rising for the first time in over a year.

Weekly Market Outlook: Bank of Japan and Yen Impact

This Week

• Bank of Japan Decision (Tuesday, July 30)
  Markets expect no change to the policy rate (currently 0.10%), but inflation persistence (core-core CPI >3%) is increasing pressure for future hikes.
  Key focuses:
  • Will the BoJ revise up its FY2025 inflation forecast above 2%?
  • Any indication of further balance sheet normalization or tapering?
  The yen has weakened back to ~151/USD. BoJ guidance will be watched closely for FX implications—hawkish signals may trigger a rally in the yen and a pullback in Nikkei stocks.
• Industrial Production, Retail Sales (Wednesday)
  These data will give insight into real economy health as manufacturing has been weak but consumer demand is holding up.

EMEA / Emerging Markets

This Week

• South Africa: Trade balance data (Monday), PMI (Wednesday)
• Turkey: Central bank’s next guidance will be key after surprise 25bps hike last week
• Russia: Industrial output and budget balance data to be released midweek
  • Watch for signs of war-related spending distortions or sanctions impact

Commodities

• Oil:
  Brent trading around $82–84. This week’s focus:
  • U.S. inventory data (Wednesday)
  • OPEC+ compliance updates
  • Any signals of demand rebound from China PMI
• Gold:
  Hovering near $2,020/oz. May respond to Fed dovishness or weak U.S. macro data later this week.

Weekly Market Outlook: Crypto Markets See Ethereum and Bitcoin Surge

Top Crypto Headlines (July 26–28, 2025)

1. Ethereum Analyst Sees $8K–$13K Range by Q4

A well-known crypto analyst has projected Ethereum (ETH) to reach between $8,000 and $13,000 by Q4 2025. Despite a possible 20–25% correction in the breakout phase, the mid- to long-term outlook remains bullish.

2. DeFi Total Value Locked Hits $153 Billion

The DeFi sector has reached a three-year high in total value locked (TVL), climbing to $153 billion. Yield-hungry investors are deploying complex strategies such as looping on Aave and Euler to earn up to 25%. Ethereum accounts for roughly 60% of the total TVL.

3. SharpLink and BitMine Fuel ETH Buying Frenzy

• SharpLink Gaming purchased an additional 77,210 ETH ($295 million), bringing its total holdings to approximately 438,000 ETH
   ($1.69 billion).
• BitMine accumulated about 566,776 ETH (~$2 billion) in just over two weeks, ramping up competition among corporate ETH treasuries.

4. Bitcoin Approaches $120K Resistance Zone

Bitcoin hovered near the $119K–$120K range but struggled to break through key resistance. Analysts flagged this area as a major liquidation cluster, potentially triggering volatile price action.

 Market Snapshot (as of latest data)

Key Themes & Takeaways

• ETH Accumulation Surge: Institutional players like SharpLink and BitMine are rapidly building ETH treasuries, contributing to bullish sentiment and reduced supply.
• DeFi Revival: Record-breaking TVL suggests investor confidence is returning to DeFi, fueled by yield-maximizing strategies.
• ETH vs BTC: With Bitcoin consolidating below $120K, Ethereum may continue to outperform in the short term, especially if it breaks above $4,000.

Final Remarks

This week will define the August macro and market narrative. Central banks (Fed, BoJ), macro prints (Eurozone CPI/GDP, U.S. jobs), and megacap earnings (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft) converge in a way that could either reinforce the current “soft landing and easing” narrative or trigger a repricing of risk assets.