This daily macroeconomic summary provides a snapshot of the latest developments shaping global markets. From the U.S. dollar hitting multi-year lows and equity indices reaching record highs to shifting inflation signals across Europe and Asia, investors are recalibrating expectations as trade talks and central bank policies evolve.
Daily Macroeconomic Summary: U.S. Dollar and Equity Surge
United States
Markets & Dollar
- The U.S. Dollar weakened to a 3–4 year low across major currencies, driven by optimism over resumed trade talks with Canada and China, and dovish signals from Fed Chair Powell—markets now pricing a 90% chance of a September rate cut.
- U.S. stock futures rose, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting record highs after last week’s strong gains (S&P +3.4%, Nasdaq +4.2%, Dow +3.8%).
Economic Data & Events
- Investors are focused on this week’s key U.S. labor data: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) Tuesday, ADP payrolls Wednesday, and the June jobs report on Thursday.
- The BIS warns global markets are at a “pivotal moment,” citing trade tensions and geopolitics.
Daily Macroeconomic Summary: Eurozone & UK:
-
The Eurozone composite PMI flatlined again in June at ~50.2 (services at 50.0), with weak manufacturing—pointing to stagnation. Inflation in Germany’s key states showed easing, signaling HICP may return to ~2.0% in June, aligning with ECB targets.
European equity funds saw a net inflow of ~$100 bn as investors pivoted to the region amid U.S. trade uncertainties. Futures point to modest softness in core European indices (DAX, CAC, FTSE) reflective of global caution.
UK GDP grew 0.7% in Q1—the fastest quarterly pace since early 2024—but April saw a sharp 0.3% drop; Q2 looks shaky. BoE forecasts moderate 0.25% growth in Q2; upcoming data may influence its next policy move.
China and Asia: Growth Headwinds
Factory PMI expected to remain below 50 next week; industrial profits declined ~9% in May; continued export weakness suggests limited near-term macro recovery. Nikkei rose ~0.8% in early Asian trade as easing in U.S.–Canada tensions supported global risk sentiment.
EMEA & Emerging Market Developments
- India: Rupee gained ~1.3% last week, aided by weak dollar and lower oil; 10-year bond yield steady near 6.31%; local flows sensitive to U.S. Fed signals.
- Europe: France calls for extended EU-U.S. trade talks past July 9 for a better outcome.
- Global BIS: Warns of structural fault lines from trade wars and geopolitical strains.
Daily Macroeconomic Summary: Commodities & Cryptocurrencies
- Oil: Brent crude edged lower amid OPEC+ output decisions and softened demand sentiment.
- Gold: Slight dip as risk appetite improved.
- Copper & Soy: Copper modestly higher (+0.25%), soybeans unchanged.
- Bitcoin: Surpassed $108k, reflecting broader risk-on market tone.
Key Themes and Market Outlook
- Revived trade optimism: Canada drops digital tax; U.S.–China deal on minerals; Canada-U.S. talks reset to July 21.
- Fed rate outlook: Strong probability of a September cut; all eyes on upcoming payrolls.
- Global stability vs uncertainty: European inflows diverge from caution elsewhere; BIS highlights risks to financial order.
Leave A Comment