Global Markets Await US PCE Data Amid Rising Yields, Soft PMIs, and Yen Weakness

Friday’s session was marked by rising U.S. Treasury yields, a slightly risk-off tone, and positioning ahead of next week’s key US PCE inflation data. Equities were mixed globally, while commodities mostly weakened. In Europe, PMI data revisions added to signs of slowing momentum. Meanwhile, the yen remained under pressure as Japanese inflation data came in weaker than expected.

🇺🇸 UNITED STATES

• Market Reaction:
  
  • S&P 500: ▲ +0.70%
  • Nasdaq 100: ▲ +1.10%
  • Dow Jones: ▼ -0.06%
  • 10Y UST Yield: ▲ +3.4bps to 4.47%
  • DXY (USD Index): ▲ +0.23% to 104.77
    
• News & Developments:
  
  • No major data releases on Friday.
  • Fed’s Waller (hawk): said recent inflation data didn’t increase his confidence in progress toward the 2% target.
  • Futures pricing for the first Fed cut is now pushed into December 2025, with only ~35bps of cuts priced this year.

🇪🇺 EUROZONE

• Equity & Bond Markets:
  
  • Euro Stoxx 50: ▼ -0.24%
  • DAX: ▼ -0.20%
  • CAC 40: ▼ -0.09%
  • 10Y Bund Yield: ▲ +2bps to 2.58%
  • EURUSD: ▼ -0.18% to 1.0810
    
• Key Headlines:
  
  • ECB’s Villeroy: “We can afford to cut rates even if the Fed does not.”
  • Final PMI prints confirmed weakness in manufacturing, while services held up slightly better.
  • Markets continue pricing over 90% probability of June rate cut.

🇬🇧 UNITED KINGDOM

• Market Snapshot:
  
  • FTSE 100: ▲ +0.26%
  • GBPUSD: ▼ -0.15% to 1.2685
  • 10Y Gilt Yield: ▲ +4bps to 4.23%
    
• Notables:
  
  • Gilt yields reversed lower mid-week after the inflation shock but rebounded slightly on Friday.
  • BoE’s Mann stayed cautious on inflation dynamics, despite headline CPI falling.

🇨🇳 CHINA

• Markets:
  
  • Shanghai Comp: ▼ -0.88%
  • Hang Seng: ▼ -1.38%
  • Offshore Yuan (USDCNH): ▲ to 7.2480
    
• Key News:
  • PBoC stayed inactive; investors await May PMIs due this week.
  • Chinese tech stocks declined again amid regulatory overhang and soft global demand.

🇯🇵 JAPAN

• Market Moves:
  
  • Nikkei 225: ▼ -1.17%
  • USDJPY: ▲ +0.4% to 157.14
  • 10Y JGB Yield: ▲ +1.5bps to 0.995%
    
• Macro Data:
  
  • National CPI (Apr):
    
    • Headline: 2.5% YoY (exp: 2.4%)
    • Core-core CPI: 2.4% (vs 2.9% prev) → cooler inflation
  • Weak inflation numbers reduce urgency for BoJ tightening. Yen still under pressure.

🌍 EMEA MARKETS

• Turkey:
  
  • USDTRY: ▲ to 32.30 (record high)
  • BIST 100: ▼ -0.76%
  • 10Y Turkish Bond: ▲ yields at ~27.0%
    
• South Africa:
  
  • ZAR weakened ahead of elections.
  • USDZAR: ▲ to 18.63
    
• Poland & Hungary:
  
  • Minor gains in local stock indices.
  • EURPLN and EURHUF stable on the day.

🛢️ COMMODITIES & CRYPTO

Performance (Friday):

• WTI Crude: ▼ -0.6% to $76.99
• Brent: ▼ -0.5% to $81.62
• Gold (XAUUSD): ▼ -0.83% to $2,334
• Silver: ▼ -2.10% to $30.20
• Copper: ▼ -1.8% to $4.75

Crypto Market:

• Bitcoin (BTC): ▲ +0.25% to $67,100
• Ethereum (ETH): ▲ +0.4% to $3,080
• SOL, AVAX, and DOGE: underperformed slightly on rotation into majors.

Highlights:

• CME BTC futures saw net inflows as ETF enthusiasm remained intact.
• Gold and silver under pressure as real yields climbed.