Markets kicked off the week with cautious optimism, as this daily market recap highlights a heavy macro calendar including JOLTS, ISM Services, the ECB decision, and U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls. U.S. data showed continued manufacturing sector resilience. Eurozone inflation supported rate-cut bets, while oil prices rebounded on speculation around future OPEC+ actions. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions (Red Sea, Taiwan) remain in the backdrop.
🇺🇸 United States
Previous Day Highlights:
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May): Rose to 52.3, beating forecasts (50.2), indicating ongoing manufacturing expansion.
- Markets:
- S&P 500: +0.27%
- Nasdaq 100: +0.48%
- 10Y Yield: ↑ to 4.51% (+5bps)
- Dollar Index (DXY): Flat at 104.6
News:
- Fed officials entered a quiet period before the June FOMC, but Fed funds futures are pricing in no rate cuts until November.
- AI stocks extended gains, led by Nvidia and Broadcom.
- WSJ reported ongoing concerns within the Fed over “uncomfortably sticky” services inflation.
🇪🇺 Euro Area
Previous Day Highlights:
- CPI Flash Estimate (YoY, May): 2.6% (vs 2.5% expected)
- Core CPI (YoY, May): 2.9% (inline)
- Germany 10Y Bund yield: +6bps to 2.72%
Markets:
- Euro Stoxx 50: +0.55%
- EUR/USD: Slightly up at 1.0865
News:
- Inflation prints didn’t derail rate cut expectations. ECB is still widely expected to cut rates on Thursday.
- Germany’s coalition faced electoral setbacks in EU pre-voting polls, adding political pressure to fiscal discussions.
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
Previous Day Highlights:
- No major macro data.
Markets:
- FTSE 100: -0.25%
- GBP/USD: Unchanged near 1.2740
- 10Y Gilt: Yield ↑ to 4.32%
News:
- Bank of England’s Pill reiterated caution on premature rate cuts, despite softening services inflation.
🇨🇳 China
Previous Day Highlights:
- Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May): 51.7 (vs 51.5 expected), showing continued improvement.
Markets:
- Hang Seng: +1.8%
- CSI 300: +0.6%
- CNY: Slightly weaker at 7.25/USD
News:
- PBoC signaled more targeted stimulus for property sector.
- EV sector led the equity gains after NIO and Li Auto posted strong delivery figures.
🇯🇵 Japan
Previous Day Highlights:
- No major macroeconomic releases.
Markets:
- Nikkei 225: +0.9%
- 10Y JGB: Yield ↑ to 1.04%
- USD/JPY: At 157.30, yen continues to weaken.
News:
- BoJ officials reiterated concerns about premature policy tightening, keeping bets alive for a very gradual normalization.
🌍 EMEA & Others
🇹🇷 Turkey:
- USD/TRY: Slightly up at 32.27
- CBRT FX reserve buildup continues; CDS spreads mildly narrowed as inflows sustain.
🇿🇦 South Africa:
- ANC lost majority in final election results (40.2%), leading to coalition talks.
- ZAR: Volatile, traded at 18.60/USD
🇧🇷 Brazil:
- IBOV: +0.8%
- Lula’s remarks on cutting rates drew criticism from BCB, increasing friction between monetary and fiscal arms.
🛢️ Commodities & 🔐 Crypto
Commodities
- Brent: +1.4% to $82.10
- WTI: +1.3% to $77.95
- Gold: +0.2% to $2,344/oz
News:
- OPEC+ extended current production cuts into Q3 but introduced the possibility of gradual phase-outs starting October.
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