Markets React to Softer US GDP, Rising Eurozone Inflation, and Yen Turmoil — May 30 Recap

Global Market Summary highlights cautious sentiment across regions as month-end flows and inflation data shape investor behavior. In the U.S., GDP growth missed expectations, reviving speculation about earlier Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile, Eurozone inflation came in hotter than forecast, putting pressure on the ECB’s upcoming decisions. Adding to global volatility, Japan’s yen weakened sharply, prompting fresh verbal intervention. On the other hand, Turkish markets rallied following the central bank’s latest decision, while political uncertainty weighed on South Africa. This global market summary reflects rising divergence across economies and asset classes.

Markets were mostly cautious as month-end flows and key inflation data weighed on sentiment. U.S. GDP growth came in below expectations, reviving bets for earlier Fed cuts. Eurozone inflation surprised to the upside, while Japan’s yen continued to weaken sharply, prompting verbal intervention. In EM, Turkish assets rallied post-CBRT meeting, while South African markets priced in post-election coalition risks.

📊 Global Market Summary: U.S. Data Recap

🔹 Key Developments:

• Q1 GDP (Second Estimate): Revised down to 1.3% from 1.6% (vs. 1.6% expected), driven by softer consumer spending.
• Jobless Claims: Slightly up to 219K (vs. 218K prior), but still within stable trend.
• Fed Speak: Atlanta Fed’s Bostic reiterated “no rush” on cuts; markets now price 40% probability of a September cut.

🔹 Markets:

• S&P 500: +0.22%
• Nasdaq 100: +0.51%
• US 10Y Yield: ↓ 7bps to 4.54%
• DXY: ↓ to 104.72

🇪🇺 Eurozone Market Summary: Inflation Surprises

🔹 Key Developments:

• German CPI (May, preliminary): 2.4% YoY, above 2.2% expected — Services inflation remained sticky.
• ECB officials noted they are “ready for June cut,” but flagged risks of second-half persistence in core inflation.

🔹 Markets:

• EuroStoxx 50: -0.24%
• German 10Y Bund: ↑ 2bps to 2.67%
• EUR/USD: +0.32% to 1.0844

🇬🇧 United Kingdom

🔹 Developments:

• No major data. GBP strength continued amid broad USD softness and pre-BoE policy re-pricing.
• Political focus remains on upcoming general elections (July 4); Labour maintains strong lead.

🔹 Markets:

• FTSE 100: +0.59%
• GBP/USD: +0.36% to 1.2735
• UK 10Y Gilt: ↓ 4bps to 4.18%

🇯🇵 Japan

🔹 Developments:

• USD/JPY hit fresh 34-year high at 157.70, despite Tokyo CPI showing deceleration (May core CPI at 1.9% vs 2.0% prior).
• Officials ramped up verbal warnings on FX volatility. BoJ reportedly monitoring for “disorderly moves.”

🔹 Markets:

• Nikkei 225: -1.30% (profit-taking + stronger JPY risk)
• JPY: Weakening again, USD/JPY at 157.70
• JGB 10Y: Unchanged at 1.05%

🇨🇳 China

🔹 Developments:

• No major macro releases. PBoC conducted net CNY100B liquidity injection.
• Markets eye PMI releases over the weekend.

🔹 Markets:

• Shanghai Composite: +0.13%
• Hang Seng: -1.14%
• USD/CNH: ↑ to 7.2580

🌍 EM Market Summary: Turkey Rallies, South Africa Under Pressure

🇹🇷 Turkey

• CBRT held policy rate at 50%; emphasized tight stance “for longer.”
• TRY rallied as inflation expectations adjusted downward.
• USD/TRY: ↓ to 32.18
• BIST-100: +1.6%
• 10Y TRY yield: ↓ 48bps

🇿🇦 South Africa

• ANC lost majority in national elections (below 50%); coalition uncertainty weighing on assets.
• ZAR: -1.1% to 18.75
• JSE All Share: -2.4%

🛢️ Commodities

🔹 Crude Oil:

• WTI: +1.5% to $78.56
• Market optimistic ahead of OPEC+ meeting this weekend (expectation of extension of supply cuts).

🔹 Gold:

• +0.9% to $2,364/oz amid falling yields and dovish Fed bets.

🔹 Natural Gas (US):

• -3.1% to $2.63, following EIA inventory build.