Global Markets Face Volatility Amid Fed Expectations, Consumer Spending Concerns, and Policy Shifts

• Global Growth Forecasts Revised: The OECD reduced its global growth projections, attributing the slowdown to economic challenges arising from President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. ​
• US Consumer Spending Declines: In the United States, consumer spending showed signs of weakening. Foot traffic in retail stores decreased by 4.3% year-on-year in early March, and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell for the third consecutive month, reaching its lowest point since November 2022.
• Market Volatility and Recession Concerns: The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite entering correction territory. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged the possibility of a recession but emphasized that he does not anticipate a financial crisis.

United States:

• Federal Reserve Meeting: Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, seeking indications of potential interest rate cuts to stabilize markets affected by tariff uncertainties. ​

Eurozone and Germany:

• Increased Optimism: Economists expressed growing optimism about growth prospects in the eurozone and Germany, even before the announcement of a historic debt deal aimed at boosting infrastructure investment.

United Kingdom:

• Bank of England’s Stance: The Bank of England is expected to maintain its current interest rates at the upcoming meeting, balancing concerns over inflation and economic pressures.

China:

• Domestic Consumption Focus: China is emphasizing domestic consumption to counter weak confidence and deflationary pressures, aiming to sustain economic growth amid global uncertainties.

Japan:

• Monetary Policy Outlook: The Bank of Japan is anticipated to raise interest rates, but not in the immediate term, as it navigates complex geopolitical and economic challenges.

Other Notable Developments:

• Poland’s Credit Rating: Fitch Ratings reaffirmed Poland’s ‘A-‘ credit rating with a stable outlook, reflecting expectations of continued economic growth and manageable fiscal deficits. ​

These developments underscore the dynamic nature of the global economy, with trade policies, consumer behavior, and central bank actions playing pivotal roles in shaping economic trajectories.