Market Analysis 07.10.2024

Today’s economic calendar presents several key events that may drive market movements, particularly for the EUR, USD, and JPY. In the Asian session, the Japanese Leading Indicators fell to 106.7%, indicating a weaker economic outlook, which could pressure the JPY lower. The European session started with a sharp drop in German Factory Orders (-5.8% vs. -1.9% expected), which may weigh heavily on the EUR, overshadowing the minor improvement in Sentix Investor Confidence (-13.8 vs. -14.6 expected). CHF volatility could increase as Foreign Currency Reserves rose to 716B, signaling possible SNB interventions. For the GBP, the Halifax HPI met expectations at 0.3%, indicating housing market stability but offering limited support for directional movement. In the US session, speeches from FOMC members Bowman and Kashkari will be crucial for the USD’s direction, as markets seek clues on the Fed’s policy outlook. A hawkish tone could strengthen the USD, potentially pushing USD/JPY higher, while weaker-than-expected Consumer Credit data (forecast at 11.8B vs. previous 25.5B) could signal a slowdown in consumer activity, capping gains. Thus, EUR/USD may remain under pressure, GBP/USD could stay range-bound, and USD/JPY might see upward momentum if Fed speakers support continued tightening.