Dollar Slumps on Debt Fears, Euro Surges; Global Equities Rally into H2 Amid Policy Shifts- 01.07.2025

This daily macroeconomic update covers key market drivers as H1 2025 closes. From U.S. debt pressures and tariff concerns to eurozone inflows, UK resilience, and China’s easing pledges, investors face a complex backdrop across assets.

Daily Macroeconomic Update: United States Highlights

Key events – June 30, 2025
BlackRock warned that soaring U.S. government debt is now the biggest threat to Treasury markets and the dollar’s global reserve status. The U.S. dollar fell to a near four-year low against the euro, driven by fiscal concerns and uncertainty over Trump’s $3.3 trillion tax and spending plan. U.S. equities closed out H1 2025 at record highs. Key themes ahead include tariff risks, earnings momentum, and Fed policy outlook.

Performance:
Equities: S&P 500 up ~5% YTD; Nasdaq at all-time highs.
Bonds: Treasury yields pressured lower by debt concerns and expansionary policy.
FX: The U.S. dollar index at its weakest in four years.

Macroeconomic Trends: Eurozone ECB Policy and Markets

Key events – June 30, 2025

• The ECB is expected to make one final rate cut in September, ending its easing cycle at 2.0%.
• European equity funds attracted ~$100 billion YTD, while U.S. funds saw ~$87 billion in outflows.
• Spain’s Harmonised CPI rose to 2.2% in June, slightly exceeding expectations.

Performance:

• Equities: Strength supported by euro gains and strong fund inflows.
• FX: Euro near 1.18 vs. USD—highest since 2021.
• Bonds: Stable amid diverging views on fiscal policy.

UK Market Update and Currency Strength

Key events – June 30, 2025

• Q1 GDP growth was revised upward to 0.7%—the strongest quarterly pace in a year.
• The British pound appreciated ~6% in Q2, its best quarter in two years.
• UK packaging firm Mpac warned of profit pressure due to U.S. tariffs.

Performance:

• Equities: Mixed; some sectors impacted by tariffs.
• Bonds: BoE expected to deliver two more cuts this year.
• FX: GBP/USD trading around 1.37.

Daily Macroeconomic Update: China Economic Developments

Key events – June 30, 2025

• June manufacturing PMI remained in contraction at 49.7, though slightly improved.
• The PBOC pledged more targeted and faster easing, with modest rate cuts expected ahead of the July Politburo meeting.

Performance:

• Equities: Stabilizing on growing stimulus signals.
• Bonds: Supported by central bank liquidity.
• FX: Yuan steady amid easing expectations.

Japan Monetary Policy and Market Dynamics

No major data on June 30. However, BOJ faces tightening pressures amid global inflation concerns and spillover from U.S. tariffs.

EMEA (Other Emerging Markets)

Capital flows into the eurozone and U.S. tariff spillovers are shaping EM dynamics. Regional central banks remain sensitive to FX and commodity pressures.

Daily Macroeconomic Update: Commodities and Crypto

• Gold: Rebounded from 1-month low; up ~5% in Q2.
• Oil: Eased after mid-June spike; WTI around $65/barrel.
• CRB Commodity Index: Down 0.8% on June 30 to 365.18.
• Bitcoin: Holding firm near recent highs following Middle East de-escalation.

Summary of Key Daily Updates

• U.S. debt worries dominate, weighing on Treasuries and the dollar.
• Fed path and tariffs remain top concerns.
• Eurozone seeing last leg of rate cuts; inflows buoy markets.
• UK economic data strong; firms feel tariff pressure.
• China weak in manufacturing, but easing support grows.
• Gold rebounds, oil softens, crypto stable.