Jobs Surge, Deficit Soars: Is the U.S. Economy Booming or on a Collision Course?- 04.07.2025

This global financial market recap highlights the key developments shaping sentiment today. From strong U.S. payrolls data and rising fiscal deficits to oil’s renewed weakness and cautious moves across Europe and Asia, investors are parsing complex signals as geopolitical tensions and trade risks mount.

Global Financial Market Recap: United States

Recent Events (July 3):

• June nonfarm payrolls rose by 147,000 jobs, beating expectations (~110k). Unemployment dropped to 4.1% from 4.2%.
• ISM Services PMI climbed to 50.8 in June, indicating growth. However, services employment declined again (47.2).
• Trade deficit for May widened to $71.5 billion due to a 4% decline in exports.
• The House passed a new tax-cut and spending bill, lifting the debt ceiling but adding ~$3.4 trillion to the deficit.

Market Snapshot:

• Equities gained following the jobs report.
• U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields rose on solid employment data.
• The dollar strengthened slightly, but remains near multi-year lows.

Implications:

• Markets now see a September rate cut as likely.
• Fiscal expansion raises concerns about long-term yield pressure and inflation risks.

Global Financial Market Recap: Europe and UK

Euro Area:

• Markets focus on France’s July 14 budget vote and German stimulus plans. Bonds and FX remain sensitive to fiscal developments.

United Kingdom:

• Sterling held steady around $1.3628 after falling on political instability concerns.
• Gilt yields rose amid questions around fiscal credibility.

China and Japan Market Developments

China:

• Asian markets were flat. Chinese blue chips rose while Hong Kong lagged.
• Oil demand outlook dimmed due to weak Chinese services activity.

Japan:

• Market sentiment subdued, with focus on U.S. jobs data and ongoing trade tensions.

EMEA and Emerging Markets Overview

• Global risk appetite remains cautious ahead of U.S.-EU tariff decisions (July 9) and U.S.-China trade talks (Aug 12).
• The Vietnamese dong hit record lows after reports of a U.S.–Vietnam trade agreement.
• Canada’s May trade deficit narrowed, driven by increased non-U.S. exports; bond yields edged higher.

Commodities and Crypto Highlights

• Oil: Brent fell to $68.58 and WTI to $66.94 amid concerns over demand and anticipated OPEC+ supply increases.
• Gold: Continues strong YTD gains (~25%), but profit-taking may emerge if geopolitical stress recedes.
• Forex: The dollar remains weak; yen, euro, and sterling move on fiscal/political dynamics.
• Crypto: Stable, driven by overall risk sentiment with no notable daily catalysts.

Key Takeaways and Market Themes

• U.S. payrolls exceed forecasts, supporting rate-hold outlook.
• Rising fiscal deficit pressures bond markets.
• Oil declines on China/U.S. demand signals.
• Geopolitical events and trade risks dominate short-term outlook.