ECB Holds Fire Amid Tariff Threats; Trump’s Name Surfaces in Epstein Files—Markets Brace for Fallout- 24.07.2025

Global market update shows mixed reactions as Alphabet’s strong earnings lifted tech stocks while Tesla disappointed, the ECB paused rate cuts, and crypto markets tumbled amid liquidations. Trade optimism from U.S.–Japan deals and macro data shaped investor sentiment heading into key U.S. economic releases later this week.

Global Market Update: U.S. Earnings Boost Nasdaq While Tesla Falls

 Political Spotlight: Trump–Epstein Files

• U.S. media reported that the Department of Justice informed Donald Trump in May that his name appeared in Epstein investigation files.
• A Florida judge rejected the unsealing of grand jury transcripts related to Epstein’s early Florida probe.
• Trump sued the Wall Street Journal for defamation, denying any wrongdoing and calling the coverage “false and malicious.”

Market Summary

• S&P 500: +0.9%
• Nasdaq 100: +1.1%
• Dow Jones: +0.7%
• 10Y Treasury Yield: rose to 4.39%
• USD Index (DXY): slightly weaker around 97.2

Corporate Earnings – U.S. Mega-Caps

Alphabet (GOOGL) – Q2 2025

• Revenue: $96.4 billion (+14% YoY)
• Net Income: $28.2 billion
• EPS: $2.31 vs $2.19 expected
• Google Cloud: +32% YoY
• Search/Ads: +11% YoY
• CapEx: Raised to $85 billion for AI infrastructure expansion
• Investor Reaction: Stock closed +2.3% post-earnings

Key Takeaway: Alphabet’s results exceeded expectations, driven by strength in cloud services and resilient ad revenue. AI investment ramp-up signals long-term growth commitment.

Tesla (TSLA) – Q2 2025

• Revenue: $22.5 billion (–12% YoY)
• Net Income: $1.17 billion (–23% YoY)
• EPS: $0.40 vs $0.42 expected
• Free Cash Flow: Collapsed ~89% YoY
• Production: 410,000 vehicles | Deliveries: 384,000 (–13% YoY)
• CEO Outlook: Elon Musk warned of “a few rough quarters” ahead due to waning EV subsidies
• Investor Reaction: Stock fell –6.4%

Key Takeaway: Tesla missed on top and bottom lines. Slowing deliveries, rising costs, and dwindling U.S. tax credits weighed on profitability. Eyes now turn to robotaxi and new affordable model programs.

Global Market Update: ECB Holds Rates Steady Amid Trade Concerns

ECB Policy Decision

• Main deposit rate held steady at 2.00%
• ECB cited easing inflation near 2% target and rising global trade risks as reasons for the pause.
• Market pricing suggests a ~60% chance of a rate cut in September.

Market Reaction

• Euro STOXX 600: +0.9%
• FTSE 100: +0.5%
• EUR/USD: rose to 1.1750 then eased slightly
• 10Y Bund Yield: flat at 1.55%

Global Market Update: Asia Developments from China and Japan

• Manufacturing PMI: 49.6 (contraction); Caixin PMI: 50.6 (expansion)
• June CPI: +0.1% YoY | PPI: –3.6% YoY
• Shanghai Composite: +0.6%
• Outlook: Pressure remains for monetary easing as domestic demand lags; markets await next week’s stimulus roadmap.

Japan

• Nikkei 225: surged +3.7%, highest level since 2021
• Boosted by U.S.–Japan tariff agreement: auto duties cut from 25% → 15%
• Topix Index: hit new all-time high
• 10Y JGB Yield: rose to 1.60% (highest since 2008)
• JPY/USD: steady at 147.10
• Political risk looms after PM Ishiba’s coalition lost control of the upper house.

EMEA & Emerging Markets

• MSCI Asia ex-Japan: +0.4%
• India Nifty 50: +0.6%
• South Korea KOSPI: +0.9%
• South Africa ALSI: +0.7%
• Currencies: Indian Rupee, Brazilian Real, and Australian Dollar gained modestly
• Auto Stocks: BMW, Mercedes, Porsche, Volvo gained 4–7% on trade deal spillover

Cryptocurrency & Commodities – Global Market Update on Risk Trends

Market Snapshot

• Bitcoin (BTC): $118,500 (–1.0%)
• Ethereum (ETH): $3,597 (–3.2%)
• Dogecoin (DOGE): –11%
• Ripple (XRP): –7%
• Shiba Inu (SHIB): –6.5%
• Solana (SOL): –3.8%

Top 5 Crypto Stories

1. $735 Million Liquidated:
   Total liquidations surged as leveraged long positions were wiped out across BTC, ETH, XRP. ETH alone accounted for ~40% of the losses.
2. Ethereum Exit Queue Explodes:
   Validator exit requests hit 625,000 ETH (~$2.3B), the largest since the Merge. Many early stakers are taking profit after recent rallies.
3. Crypto–Equity Volatility Ties Deepen:
   BTC’s 90-day rolling correlation with the VIX rose to 0.89, suggesting that macro volatility is now spilling into crypto markets.
4. DOGE Dumped by Institutions:
   Analysts flagged heavy DOGE outflows from large wallets, triggering an 11% drop in less than 6 hours.
5. XRP in Retest Mode:
   XRP dipped to $3.46. As long as it holds $3.40 support, technical analysts see potential upside toward $6 in Q3.

Commodities Ease as Risk Appetite Grows

Price Summary

• Brent Crude: $78.45/bbl (–0.9%)
• WTI Crude: $74.10/bbl (–1.0%)
• Gold (Spot): $2,385/oz (–1.3%)
• Silver: $29.88/oz (–1.5%)
• Copper: $4.52/lb (flat)
• Natural Gas (US): $2.54/MMBtu (+0.4%)

Agricultural

• Wheat: –0.6% | Corn: –0.4% | Soybeans: –0.3%
  Falling due to favorable Midwest weather forecasts and stronger harvest expectations.

Summary & Forward Watch

Key Takeaways:

• Earnings Split: Alphabet delivered a strong quarter; Tesla struggled with margins and revenue.
• ECB Steadies Policy: Pause justified by near-target inflation and trade tension uncertainty.
• Trump Legal Risks Rising: Epstein-related legal issues surface, though markets remain disengaged.
• Crypto Volatility Returns: Leverage unwinds and validator exits drive correction.
• Macro Focus: Trade normalization with Japan and possibly the EU is market-positive.

What to Watch:

• U.S. Q2 GDP (July 25), PCE Inflation (July 26)
• ECB, Fed forward guidance ahead of Jackson Hole (late August)
• Big Tech earnings: Microsoft, Meta, Amazon
• Potential unsealing of DOJ Epstein documents
• BTC/ETH support zones after liquidation flush