Today’s economic calendar is filled with significant events that could influence various markets across the globe. Starting with the U.S., the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report released early in the day showed a substantial inventory build-up of 3.132 million barrels, which was much higher than the forecasted 1.8 million. This increase in crude oil stock may weigh on oil prices as it suggests a potential oversupply, impacting energy markets and related assets. Later in the day, the official U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report is set to be released, with an expected modest increase of 0.300 million barrels, following a previous drawdown. This, combined with the Cushing Crude Oil Inventories data, could provide further direction to oil traders and influence the CAD/USD due to Canada’s oil exports.
In Asia, the release of Japan’s Services PMI data for October indicated a reading of 49.7, down from the previous 53.1, signaling a slight contraction in Japan’s service sector. This decline may raise concerns about the resilience of Japan’s economic recovery, given that the PMI is now below the neutral 50.0 level. Investors will likely monitor any statements from Japanese policymakers for potential stimulus or support measures in response.
European data is expected to be particularly influential today, with the release of the German Factory Orders report for September, forecasted to rise by 1.6% after a significant drop of 5.8% in the prior month. A positive result here would indicate some recovery in Germany’s manufacturing sector, which is critical for the broader Eurozone economy. Furthermore, Services PMI figures from major Eurozone economies (Germany, France, and the region as a whole) will provide insight into the health of the services sector. Germany’s PMI is anticipated to rise to 51.4, indicating slight expansion, whereas France’s is expected to contract, with a forecast of 48.3. Eurozone Composite and Services PMI readings are expected to remain relatively stable, showing marginal growth.
In the U.K., the S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI is forecasted to come in at 55.3, down from 57.2 in the prior month. A decline here may signal a cooling in the U.K.’s construction sector, potentially affecting related industries and contributing to economic concerns amid ongoing inflation and interest rate pressures.
Central bank speeches will also be a key focus today, with multiple statements scheduled from ECB officials, including President Christine Lagarde, Vice President Luis de Guindos, and German Bundesbank representatives. These comments could provide clarity on the ECB’s stance regarding interest rates and inflation, especially after recent concerns about the Eurozone’s economic slowdown. In Canada, BoC Senior Deputy Governor Rogers will speak later in the day, and market participants will look for any indications of shifts in the BoC’s policy direction amid recent inflation trends.
Lastly, the U.S. 30-year bond auction will be closely watched, as the yield could signal investor sentiment on long-term interest rates and inflation expectations. Following this, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Orr’s speech may provide insights into the RBNZ’s future monetary policy plans amid global uncertainties.
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